ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation at this time. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches could be required at any time. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Forecaster Brown