ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave locatedorganization. Buoy data indicate that the system is producing windsabout 350 miles east of Barbados continue to show signs of to near tropical storm force, and an Air Force Reserveif the system has a closed circulation. Environmental conditionsreconnaissance aircraft is just beginning its mission to determine appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression oris expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning,tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday andproducts issued by your national meteorological service, whichThursday. Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consultspread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southerncould include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent 2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low expected to be conducive for significant development before thisForecaster Brownsystem moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent